Associate Fellow HEA (2013)
PhD “The coevolution of the firm and the supply network: A complex systems perspective”, Cranfield School of Management (2009)
MBA, Cranfield School of Management (2002)
BA (Honours) in Maths and Data analysis/design, Open University (1989)
Liz Varga has expertise in trans-disciplinary research projects across infrastructure systems (energy, transport, water, waste and telecoms) via her research projects, engagements with practice and feedback from dissemination. Her skills are in creating abstractions of real-world systems, recognizing emergent phenomena and co-evolutionary effects, together with measurable systemic metrics. She leads the design of computational agent-based models which represent the dynamics of inter-connected systems. She has experience of system transitions, modelling the effects of policy, technology and innovation under different future scenarios, and analysing computational results representing economic, environmental and societal effects. She won the Cranfield University Research Award (2014).
Liz runs the Complex Systems Research Centre creating evolutionary models of critical infrastructure systems embracing social, technical, economic and policy factors using various futures scenarios.
Current collaborative research projects.
- Co-investigator and Leader of two Work-Packages: "Stepping Up" (see EPSRC - Stepping Up) 3 year project starting in October 2015, and focusing on big data collection and modelling of the scaling up of Water, Energy, Food Nexus innovations.
- Co-investigator: European FP7 project "EU-InnovatE" (see EU-Innovate and FP7 funding) funded under the Sustainable Lifestyles and the Green Economy in Europe theme, 3 year project started January 2014, modelling the invasion and diffusion of sustainable user innovations using performance metrics for sustainable lifestyles in the domains of energy, transport, food and housing within sustainable scenarios (SPREAD).
- Co-investigator: "International Centre for Infrastructure Futures" (ICIF) research project (see ICIF and EPSRC - ICIF), running June 2013 - December 2016, developing innovative business models, risk models and agent based models of interdependencies in infrastructure systems.
Other current initiatives
- Various EPSRC/ESRC/H2020 proposals for research are in the review process.
- Editor for a new Handbook: Complex delivery: projects and programs, to be published 2016.
- Several publications in the review process, including: "Mixed Methods Research: A method for complex systems"; "Household water and energy technologies and UK infrastructures: exploration of system level effects"; "The Uncertainty of Systemic Risk".
- Editor of special issue of E:CO (August 2015) with editorial "Complexity and Sustainable Utility Services".
- Seeking doctoral students for modelling innovation at Water, Energy, Food Nexus and for Water, Energy, Clothing Nexus.
Recent past research projects
- Transforming Utilities' Conversion Points (see TUCP portal and EPSRC - TUCP) - introducing the concept of a generic utility conversion and modelling utility interdependence in critical infrastructure.
- Co-investigator : the Land of the MUSCos project (see MUSCO's public site and EPSRC - MUSCos) which modelled business models of potential Multi-Utility Service Companies.
- All-in-One, (see EPSRC - All in One) a feasibility analysis for supplying all services through one utility product, All-in-One examined vignettes of future integrated utility provision.
- CASCADE (see EPSRC - CASCADE) took a complex systems perspective to Smart Grids and Distributed Energy Generation; our partners at the Institute for Energy and Sustainable Development are pursuing a follow-on project AMEN (see EPSRC - AMEN).
- ABI3L, a TSB (now Innovate UK) funded project (see TSB - ABI3L) an agent based model for multi-modal freight transport.
Directly and indirectly, related to adaptation and critical infrastructure:
- Government departments: DfT, DEFRA, BIS
- Charities: Institute for Sustainability
- Firms: Arup, Ecotricity, MDST, IBM WPD (Western Power Distribution)
- National corporations: Network Rail, National Grid
- Lobby/coordination groups: ARCC-CN, UKCIP, RSSB
Articles In Journals
- Roelich K, Knoeri C, Steinberger J, Varga L, Blythe P, Butler D, Gupta R, Harrison G, Martin C & Purnell P (2015) Towards resource-efficient and service-oriented integrated infrastructure operation, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 92 40-52.
- Illin T & Varga L (2015) The uncertainty of systemic risk, Risk Management, 17 (4) 240-275.
- Bale C, Varga L & Foxon T (2015) Energy and complexity: New ways forward, Applied Energy, 138 150-159.
- Robinson M, Varga L & Allen P (2015) An agent-based model for energy service companies, Energy Conversion and Management, 94 233-244.
- Varga L, Robinson M & Allen P Multi-utility service companies: a complex systems model of increasing resource efficiency, Complexity, 8 (1) 800-819.
- Pothitou M, Varga L, Kolios AJ & Gu S (2015) Linking energy behaviour, attitude and habits with environmental predisposition and knowledge, International Journal of Sustainable Energy.
- Gonzalez de Durana JM, Barambones O, Kremers E & Varga L (2015) Agent-based modeling of the energy network for hybrid cars, Energy Conversion and Management, 98 376-386.
- Rylatt RM, Snape JR, Allen P, Ardestani BM, Boait P, Boggasch E, Fan D, Fletcher G, Gammon R, Lemon M, Pakka V, Rynikiewicz C, Savill M, Smith S, Strathern M & Varga L (2015) Exploring smart grid possibilities: a complex systems modelling approach, Smart Grid, 1 (1) 1-15.
- Varga L, Grubic T, Greening P, Varga S, Camci F & Dolan T (2014) Characterizing conversion points and complex infrastructure systems: Creating a system representation for agent-based modeling, Complexity, 19 (6) 30-43.
- Pothitou M, Kolios A J, Varga L & Gu S (2014) A framework for targeting household energy savings through habitual behavioural change, International Journal of Sustainable Energy (in press).
- Allen PM & Varga L (2014) Modelling Sustainable Energy Futures for the UK, Futures, 57 28-40.
- Dolan T, Howsam P, Parsons DJ, Whelan MJ & Varga L (2014) Identifying Adaptation Options and Constraints: The Role of Agronomist Knowledge in Catchment Management Strategy, Water Resources Management, 28 (2) 511-526.
- Gonzalez de Durana JM, Barambones O, Kremers E & Varga L (2014) Agent based modeling of energy networks, Energy Conversion and Management, 82 308-319.
- Varga L & Grubic T (2013) Transforming critical infrastructure, International Innovation (Jul) 35-37.
- Varga L, Camci F, Boxall J, Toossi A, Machell J, Blythe PT & Taylor C (2013) Transforming Critical Infrastructure: Matching the Complexity of the Environment to Policy, International Journal of E-Planning Research, 2 (3) 38-49.
- Rylatt M, Gammon R, Boait P, Varga L, Allen P, Savill M, Snape R, Lemon M, Ardestani B, Pakka V, Fletcher G, Smith S, Fan D & Strathern M (2013) CASCADE: An Agent Based Framework for Modeling The Dynamics of Smart Electricity Systems, Emergence -Mahwah- Lawrence Erlbaum-, 15 (2) 1-13.
- Allen P, Varga L, Strathern M, Savill M & Fletcher G (2013) Exploring Possible Energy Futures for the UK: Evolving Power Generation, Emergence -Mahwah- Lawrence Erlbaum-, 15 (2) 38-63.
- Karaca F, Raven PG, Machell J, Varga L, Camci F, Chitchyan R, Boxall J, Ulanicki B, Skworcow P, Strzelecka A, Ozawa-Meida L & Janus T (2013) Single infrastructure utility provision to households: Technological feasibility study, Futures, 49 (May) 35-48.
- Grubic T, Varga L & Varga S (2013) Future utility services' (un)known framework: knowledge existence and knowledge reach, Futures, 54 68-86.
- Camci F, Ulanicki B, Boxall J, Chitchyan R, Varga L & Karaca F (2012) Rethinking future of utilities: supplying all services through one sustainable utility infrastructure, Environmental Science and Technology, 46 (10) 5271-5272.
- Varga L (2011) Complexity Tools for Smart Grids: PCT and ABM Join Forces, Emergence -Mahwah- Lawrence Erlbaum-, 13 (1-2) 57-70.
- Allen PM, Varga L & Strathern M (2010) The evolutionary complexity of social and economic systems: The inevitability of uncertainty and surprise, Risk Management, 12 (1) 9-30.
- Allen P, Varga L & Strathern M (2009) Complexity, Innovation and Organizational Evolution, Projectics, 1 (1) 31-49.
- Varga L, Allen P, Strathern M, Rose-Anderssen C, Baldwin J & Ridgway K (2009) Sustainable Supply Networks: A Complex Systems Perspective, Emergence -Mahwah- Lawrence Erlbaum-, 11 (3) 16-36.
- Rose-Anderssen C, Baldwin J, Ridgway K, Allen P, Varga L & Strathern M (2009) A cladistic classification of commercial aerospace supply chain evolution, Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, 20 (2) 235-257.
- Rose-Anderssen C, Baldwin J, Ridgway K, Allen P & Varga L (2009) Knowledge transformation, learning and changes giving competitive advantage in aerospace supply chains, Emergence -Mahwah- Lawrence Erlbaum-, 11 (2) 15-29.
- Rose-Anderssen C, Baldwin JS, Ridgway K, Allen PM & Varga L (2008) Aerospace Supply Chains as Evolutionary Networks of Activities: Innovation Via Risk-Sharing Partnerships, Creativity and Innovation Management, 17 (4) 304-318.
- Rose-Anderssen C, Baldwin J, Ridgway K, Allen P, Varga L & Strathern M (2008) The evolution of commercial aerospace supply chains and the facilitation of innovation, International Journal of Electronic Customer Relationship Management, 2 (1) 63-84.
- Allen P & Varga L (2007) Complexity: the co-evolution of epistemology, axiology and ontology, Nonlinear Dynamis, Psychology, and Life Sciences, 11 (1) 19-50.
- Allen PM & Varga E (2006) A co-evolutionary complex systems perspective on information systems, Journal of Information Technology, 21 (4) 229-238.
- Baldwin J, Rose-Anderssen C, Ridgway K, Allen P, Lopez A, Strathern M & Varga L (2006) Management decision making: risk reduction through simulation, Risk Management, 8 (4) 310-328.
- Varga L & Allen P (2006) A case study of the largest aerospace manufacturing organizations: An exploration of organizational strategy, innovation and evolution, Emergence -Mahwah- Lawrence Erlbaum-, 8 (2) 48-64.
- Toossi A, Camci F & Varga L (2013) Developing an AHP based decision model for energy systems policy making. In: IEEE International Conference on Industrial Technology (ICIT).
- Varga L, Allen P & Varga S (2013) Business model modelling: co-evolutionary competition in utility services. In: ECCS'13, Barcelona.
- Gonzalez de Durana J, Barambones J, Kremers E & Varga L (2013) Agent based modelling of local energy networks as instances of Complex Infrastructure Systems. In: ECCS'13, Barcelona.
- Varga & L (2013) Action in 8 domains for an 8 factor improvement: infrastructure with agency. In: International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure, Wollongong.
- Varga L, Grubic T, Greening P & Varga S (2012) Critical Infrastructure and Social Systems Coevolution. In: Complexity Science and Social Science at the Interface to the Real World, Newport Pagnell.
- Varga L, Greening P, Fletcher G, Varga S & Griffiths M (2012) Agent based freight logistics - intelligent, integrated and innovative policy making. In: European Conference on Complex Systems 2012, (ECCS'12), Brussels.
- Varga L, Knoeri C, Steinberger JK, Roelich K & Varga S (2012) Modelling transitions towards resource-efficient and service-oriented infrastructure operation. In: Agent-based models and complex techno-social systems, Zurich.
- Varga L (2012) Complexity Science and Energy. In: UKERC: Energy and Complexity: The Way Forward, Oxford.
- Knoeri C, Steinberger JK, Roelich K & Varga L (2012) Resource-efficient and service-oriented infrastructure operation: towards MUSCos: Multi-Service Utility Companies. In: The Role of Industrial Ecology in Addressing Sustainability Imperatives, Les Diablerets.
- Varga L, Camci F, Boxall J, Toossi A, Machell J, Blythe P & Taylor C (2012) Transforming Critical Infrastructure: Matching the Complexity of the Environment to Policy. In: European Conference on Complex Systems 2012, (ECCS'12), Brussels.
- Camci F, Ulanicki B, Boxall J, Chitchyan R & Varga L (2011) Energy and Utilities Infrastructure: Can All be in One. In: UKERC Energy and People: Futures, Complexity and Challenges, Oxford.
- Varga L, Boxall J, Blythe P, Taylor C & Camci F (2011) Integrated energy services not silo'd energy utilities. In: Energy and People: Futures, Complexity and Challenges, Lady Margaret Hall, University of Oxford.
- Varga L (2010) Understanding Energy Sustainability: A Complex Systems Perspective. In: 1st International Workshop on Complexity and Real World Applications: Using the Tools and Concepts from the Complexity Sciences to Support Real World Decision-making Activities, Southampton.
- Varga L (2010) Policy Making for Smart Grids. In: European Conference on Complex Systems (ECCS), Lisbon University Institute.
- Varga L (2010) Engineering of Emergence for a Low Carbon Economy. In: EmergeNET4 Conference: Engineering Emergence, University of York, York.
- Varga L, Allen PM & Strathern M (2010) Modeling the Growth of Distributed Energy Generation: Part I the approach. In: European Conference on Complex Systems (ECCS), Lisbon University Institute.
- Varga L (2009) Aerospace Manufacturing. In: ESRC Complex System Research Seminar Series: Seminar 3 - Modelling for Policy Decisions, Cranfield.
- Varga L, Allen P, Strathern M, Rose-Anderssen C, Baldwin J & Ridgway K (2009) Towards Policy for Firm and Supply Network Coevolution: a Study of Commercial Aerospace Manufacturing. In: ECCS09, Coventry.
- Varga L (2008) A Coevolutionary Perspective on Supply Networks. In: Cranfield Multi-Strand Conference "Creating Wealth Through Research and Innovation", Cranfield.
- Varga L, Allen P, Strathern M, Rose-Anderssen C, Baldwin J & Ridgway K (2008) An Ecological Perspective on Supply Networks. In: 4th Organization Studies Workshop, Cyprus.
- Varga L (2008) A Typology for Corporate Responsibility: Profitable and Sustainable. In: EABIS Colloquium 2008, Cranfield.
- Varga L (2007) Repertory Grid in Organization Studies. In: People And Science: Sharing Methodological Insights, cross-University conference, Cranfield.
- Allen PM & Varga L (2006) Social and Economic Complexity: the co-evolution of Reality, Knowledge and Values. In: European Conference on Complex Systems (ECCS) 2006, University of Oxford.
- Varga L, Allen P, Strathern M, Baldwin J & Rose-Anderssen C (2006) Complexity and the evolution of supply chain structures. In: EIASM Workshop on Complexity and Management, 2006, Oxford.
- Varga L (2005) Inter-connectivity in organization: conflictual diversity as a measure of evolution. In: Complexity, Science and Society Conference, Liverpool.
- Varga E (2004) A case study of the largest aerospace manufacturing organisations: an exploration of organisational strategy, innovation and evolution. In: Organisations, Innovation and Complexity: New Perspectives on the Knowledge Economy Conference, Manchester.
- Varga L (2014) Complexity Science: The Integrator. In: The Social Face of Complexity Science. Strathern M, McGlade J (ed.), Litchfield Park, AZ: Emergent Publications, p. 11-26.
- Allen Peter, Strathern Mark, Varga & Elizabeth (2010) Complexity: The Evolution of Identity and Diversity. In: Complexity, Difference and Identity. Cilliers Paul, Preiser Rika (ed.), Heidelberg London New York: Springer, p. 41-60.