Contact Dr Ken McNaught

Areas of expertise

  • Operational Analysis and Simulation
  • Safety, Resilience, Risk & Reliability


Dr Ken McNaught is a Senior Lecturer in operational research, with expertise in probabilistic decision analysis, particularly Bayesian networks and decision network influence diagrams, and in simulation modelling.

Ken has a BSc (Hons.) in Physics and Astronomy from Glasgow University, an MSc in Operational Research from Strathclyde University and a PhD in Operational Research from Cranfield University. He spent almost three years in the automotive industry with Austin Rover before joining Cranfield in 1988.

Current activities

Ken's research interests encompass:

probabilistic approaches such as Bayesian networks, influence diagram decision networks, decision trees, Markovian models and probabilistic risk analysis

simulation including system dynamics, hybrid simulation and statistical aspects of simulation modelling.

Ken works in application areas as diverse as:

reliability, maintenance and risk

fault diagnosis and prognostic modelling

intelligence analysis and course of action assessment

adversarial risk analysis

deception detection

information fusion

value of information assessment

emergency preparedness.

Recent EPSRC funded projects have included

Making Sense - concerned with decision support in the intelligence analysis domain

KT Box - where Ken's contribution was concerned with predictive maintenance modelling.

Ken currently supervises three PhD students and is the Postgraduate Research Coordinator for science and engineering students at Cranfield University at Shrivenham.




Centre for Defence Enterprise (formerly the MOD's Research Acquisition Organisation)

Defence Equipment and Support

Optimized Systems and Solutions (OSyS)

BAE Systems

Royal Norwegian Navy


Articles In Journals

Conference Papers