PhD research

The Risk Centre currently has a portfolio of eleven active PhD projects and one full time MSc by research. Please use the links below to find out more about the projects underway within each of our key themes of research, or use the links on the right to view our range of multidisciplinary MSc individual research projects and post doctoral research themes.

 

Strategic risk appraisal

Risk and evidence

Organisational maturity

Reliability, risk and uncertainty

 

 

Strategic risk appraisal

Appraising strategic risks

Researcher: Jérôme Dagonneau
Supervisors: Prof Simon Pollard, Dr Sophie Rocks, Dr George Prpich
Sponsors: Defra/EPSRC/ESRC/NERC

The work in this project concentrates on addressing the issues of risk attributes, risk comparison methods and implementation barriers in the development of a novel tool for strategic risk appraisal. Concentrating on the diverse areas of environmental risk, the tool will be informed by prior art and applied to case study data to ensure it is fit for purpose to enable comparative risk-based decision making.

Jerome has a background in environmental science and holds degrees in earth sciences, environmental science and major risk/ disaster management. Prior to joining Cranfield Jerome worked in the French National Centre for Scientific Research (06-07).

 

Risk and evidence

Risk and weight of evidence: governing the unknown

Researcher: Daniel Skinner
Supervisors: Dr Sophie Rocks, Dr Gill Drew
Sponsors: Cranfield/Defra/EPSRC/ESRC/NERC

Decision uncertainty arises from conflicting or incomplete information. It exists in all risk assessments and concerns the doubt associated with initial data, input parameters, modelling processes, interpretation, and subsequent implementation strategies. For example, whilst there may exist a good understanding of environmental impacts on a natural system in general, a particular stressor’s influence on the system and its inhabitants may be less well understood. The aim of this research is to better visualise the element of uncertainty in environmental risk-based decision making, thereby providing increased transparency, clarity and accuracy in operational weight of evidence (WOE) frameworks.

Daniel has a background in the fields of computer science (BSc, Wales) and environmental modelling and risk assessment (MSc, Bristol) which will enable him to focus on advancing understanding associated with uncertainty, with particular reference to governance of present and future scenarios.

 

Risk pathways and vulnerabilities

Researcher: João Delgado
Supervisors: Dr Phil Longurst, Professor Simon Pollard, Dr Emma Snary (Veterinary Laboratories Agency)
Sponsor: Defra

Exotic Animal Diseases are by definition absent within GB borders. However recent history shows that sporadic outbreaks of such diseases are highly likely to occur. When globalisation and increases in international trade are taken in to consideration the probability increases. A number of policies have been adopted and controls put in place to reduce the chances of such outbreaks. Moreover if an outbreak is to occur, contingency plans assure a swift resolution, thus minimising the health and economic impacts of the disease. 

This PhD project sets out to produce an objective analysis of both preventive and contingency measures, by structuring expert knowledge using elicitation methods. This will be achieved by firstly understanding the agent/environment relation, and the capacities and short comings of control measures when interfering with that relation. Secondly, it aims to generate insight in to the use of expert elicitation techniques so as to ensure accurate information where produced and understand the extent and limit to this knowledge. 

Our aim is to create a new set of techniques to enable a systematic approach to the problem thus aid the identification of critical control points (CCP) from policy intervention. CCPs highlight areas where intervention will produce results, aiding future risk management and policy making activities for the future.

 

Can an integrated risk management framework be developed for carbon capture and storage?

Researcher: Ann Barrett
Supervisors: Dr Gill Drew, Dr Fred Coulon

Currently the risk assessments of carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems are being assessed in distinct silos. This has arisen due to the need to develop proven processes and technology. With international initiatives and government support the need to make CCS a commercial reality now exists and it is necessary to develop, build and operate CCS systems so that they are commercially viable. The dynamic economic and regulatory environment that CCS is evolving in requires a risk management framework which manages the entire portfolio of risks required to deliver CCS. The aim of this research is to develop an integrated risk management framework for CCS so that it provides a commercially viable and sustainable capture system.

Ann has a background in the fields of business risk management and insurance. She brings a wealth of practical risk management experience gained from working for major clients over a period of 25 years in the insurance sector. Ann is also a member of the Chartered Insurance Institute. Most recently she has focused on the management of environmental risks for the waste sector, infrastructure projects and PFIs. She has a business studies degree (BA, South Bank),an MBA in finance/ insurance from Cass Business School and a post graduate diploma (Surrey) in environmental management and health which will provide her with the experience and understanding to develop an integrated risk management framework capable of commercial application for CCS.

 

Understanding risk perception for urban flood risk management

Researcher: Sharon Birkholz
Supervisors: Dr Paul Jeffrey, Dr Melanie Muro
Sponsors: The FP7 CORFU Project and The Lorch Foundation

Drawing from recent theoretical and empirical work on social vulnerability, resilience and the social construction of risk, this research aims at investigating the relationships that exist between flood risk perceptions and disaster preparedness, behaviour during flood events, and recovery time and capability.  Using both qualitative (social survey methods) and quantitative methodologies this inductive study hopes to provide insight and direction for effective inclusion of social data in urban flood risk management protocols and systems, in order to improve flood resilience in urban areas.

 

Organisational maturity 

Developing organisational maturity in the governance of business and environmental risk

Researcher: Craig Mauelshagen
Supervisors:  Professor Simon Pollard, Dr David Denyer
Sponsor: Cranfield DTA

Craig Mauelshagen aims to further develop the organisational maturity model in order to improve risk management in Defra and an undisclosed utilities client. Building on the assumption that organisational capacity, not available technical methodologies, are hampering effective risk management, the project will focus on identifying cultural and behavioural elements essential for effective risk management. The research will involve an in-depth investigation to uncover the underlying framework determining how organisational culture produces effective risk management behaviour.

Craig holds a BSc in biochemistry (University of Edinburgh), Graduate Diploma in management (London School of Economics), and an MSc in biodiversity, conservation and management (University of Oxford) and offers a range of expertise to Cranfield. Between studies Craig also travelled and worked teaching English in Japan, before joining Cranfield to pursue his interest in environmental risk management.

 

The role of organisational culture in determining the success of water safety plans for improved risk management

Researcher: Corinna Summerill
Supervisors: Dr Jen Smith, Professor Simon Pollard
Sponsor: International Water Association

Delivering good, safe drinking water that has the trust of consumers is the main goal of water suppliers, as outlined in the International Water Association’s Bonn Charter for Safe Drinking Water.  Water Safety Plans (WSPs), which are described in the third edition of the World Health Organisation guidelines on Drinking Water Quality and also supported in the Bonn Charter, offer a risk management approach to assist in progress towards this goal.

The aim of this research is to explore how organisational culture influences the implementation of WSPs, and how the role of public health is perceived throughout organisations.  It will build on existing work in risk management capability to investigate Bonn Charter implementation within the international water sector, and the underlying business processes within organisations that create a basis for successful water quality risk management. Furthermore, research will develop tools to assist water providers in developing and implementing the Bonn Charter, regardless of their size, risk management maturity, or working environment.

Corinna Summerill has a BSc in biology from Imperial College London, and an MSc in science, culture and communication from the University of Bath. Before starting her PhD at Cranfield she worked in the UK water industry in risk and audit and water quality.

 

The influence of culture on the implementation of risk management systems in developing countries

Researcher: Yahya Omar
Supervisor: Dr James Webster, Professor Simon Pollard
Sponsors: International Water Association, EPSRC

The lack of an effective risk management system is amongst one of the key issues that prevents the delivery of good, safe drinking water in many developing countries.  The World Health Organisation (WHO) and other international bodies are working on introducing Water Safety Plans (WSPs) in these countries in order to improve the safety of drinking water.  To aid the development of WSPs, and enhance knowledge transfer between those in developing nations and developed nations, the International Water Association (IWA) is designing the “Bonn Toolbox” to complement ongoing international progress towards the production of risk management tools.    

For WSPs and other water risk management systems to be effective in developing countries, the technical and managerial tools used need to be attuned to local cultures. Thus, the aim of this research is to elucidate (cross)-cultural elements that can influence the development of WSPs in developing countries.  This aim will be achieved through:  

  • identifying cultural factors that have affected WSP projects in developing countries;
  • evaluating constraints to the transfer of WSP knowledge;
  • identifying missing tools and/or recommending the modification of the Bonn Toolbox to better the success of WSP knowledge transfer; and           
  • developing a culturally adapted good-practice framework of risk-management in relation to water safety.

Yahya’s background is in water and environmental management.  He holds an MSc from Loughborough University’s Water, Engineering and Development Centre (WEDC).

 

Social network analysis of knowledge sharing trends in governmental risk communities

Researcher: Hayley Shaw
Supervisor(s): Dr Sophie Rocks, Dr David Denyer
Sponsors: Risk Centre

Communities of practice (CoPs) are networks actively engaged in knowledge sharing for improved organisational performance. Research indicates that organisational culture and communication between risk experts may affect organisational performance in risk management. This study looks to understand the current structure of a network of risk professionals in a UK government department. With this, a highly targeted intervention strategy which draws upon prior literature on CoP development will be applied, before a re-testing of network structure. Results of this action research will indicate the usefulness of different intervention strategies in creating a mature risk network, and speculate as to the value of the knowledge network in achieving improved risk management.

Hayley holds a BSc in physiology and pharmacology from the University of Leicester. Since graduating, Hayley has worked in a consultative capacity, gaining skills in advertising, communications and matching expertise. Hayley joined the Risk Centre in 2009 as Knowledge Exchange Manager where she is responsible for networking the Defra risk community and communicating the work of the Risk Centre to the external stakeholders.

 

Alternatives to environmental regulation

Researcher: Chris Taylor
Supervisor(s): Prof Simon Pollard, Dr Sophie Rocks, Dr Mark Smith
Sponsors: Defra/Cranfield DTA

Successive governments have attached increasing priority to the need to reduce and reform regulation in order to free business and civil society to innovate, diversify and grow. The Government places particular emphasis on achieving its objectives through non-state means wherever possible. Fostering a green economy while supporting the Big Society is also a central priority which has implications on how regulation is designed. This project, in close collaboration with Defra colleagues, involves the development of a methodology for selecting and implementing policy instruments and the application of this in environmental policy areas. The aim of this research is to understand when regulation and alternatives are appropriate, to investigate other issues that need to be considered to promote growth and the green economy, and to identify opportunities for regulatory reform.

Chris joins the Risk Centre with 12 years' consultancy experience in organisational performance improvement, which has included work with enforcement agencies (Environment Agency, HM Revenue and Customs, HSE, Metropolitan Police, local authorities), within regulated industries (ATOC, Centrica, National Trust) and with public policy designers and developers (DCLG, Defra, English Heritage, IDeA). He has a degree in Engineering, Economics and Management (MEng, Oxon) and an MSc in Economics for Natural Resource and Environmental Management (MSc, Cranfield).

 

Reliability, risk and uncertainty

Data analysis for improved risk and asset management in the water utility sector

Researcher:  Delly Dlamini
Supervisors: Dr Shaomin Wu, Professor Simon Pollard
Client: Yorkshire Water Ltd

High reliability of assets in water utilities is critically important. This is due to (i) regulation requirements, (ii) high maintenance costs, (iii) high customer expectations, and (iv) environmental and health/safety requirements. Assets reliability can be maintained and improved by applying maintenance strategies that can be designed based on specific reliability models. High quality data on asset failures, maintenance, and operations are key requirements in developing such reliability models. However, lack of data is prevalent in UK water utilities. The lack of data has led to wide-spread use of expert opinion-based reliability modelling, such as asset life models in water utilities. Such models are considered very subjective due to lack of validation and that experts can be biased in their opinions.

This research aims to explore alternative methods to condition grades (asset grade based on age and appearance), which are widely used to assess reliability and asset remaining life in water utility.  This is due to the regulatory need to move away from expert opinion-based (subjective) techniques to performance-based (more reliable) techniques in assessing asset condition and estimating asset remaining life. The model will be developed from a water utility’s asset performance data and tested for validation in the same organisation’s asset base.

 

Prediction of the remaining life of heat exchangers in coal biomass fired power plants

Researcher:  Mohammad Asgaryan
Supervisors: Dr Shaomin Wu, Dr Nigel Simms
Sponsor: EPSRC

Research in this project looks to develop methodologies for predicting the remaining life of heat exchangers in coal biomass fired power plants. Specifically, the objectives are to:

  • integrate composition models, deposition models, fireside corrosion models, steam-side oxidation models, and creep models;
  • investigate the performance of the integrated models through sensitivity analysis and model validation;
  • select optimal models based on model performance and validation; and
  • develop remaining life prediction models based on the above integrated models.