Horizon Scanning and Futures

Our core capabilities

Risk assessment and management processes are often concerned with threats and hazards that will happen in the short to medium term. However, at Cranfield, we have a dedicated work programme to systematically examine the potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments that are at the margins of our current thinking. This ‘futures’ research looks into the longer term – from 5 up to 50+ years - future, and explores novel or unexpected issues to improve the long-term robustness of policies and the evidence base.

Futures research is essential for those who need to plan to adapt and mitigate against possible and plausible risks. This research is designed to enable organisations of all kinds to add resilience, adaptability and flexibility in an increasingly complex and fast changing world.

Futures research is a truly inter-disciplinary ‘science’, covering and combining developments in society, technology, economy, environment, politics, legislation and values. It is also as much about studying the past and present, as it is about the future. Only once we understand how a system evolved and works today, can we confidently explore how it may evolve and look like in the future.

We offer a range of capabilities to help the public, private and third sectors, and others to identify, analyse and communicate insights about the future.

Techniques include: horizon scanning, trend research, and scenario planning.
Outputs include: emerging issues, trends, visions, scenarios, wild cards.

 

Staff expertise

• Fiona Lickorish: horizon scanning and futures, environmental risk, scenario planning
• George Prpich: strategic risk assessment, horizon scanning
• Aine Gormley: risk assessment methodology, weight of evidence, uncertainty
• Simon Jude: climate change adaptation, stakeholder engagement, risk
• Julia Chatterton: mathematical modelling, lifecycle assessment
• Hayley Shaw: knowledge exchange, facilitation,  and communication

 

Defining projects

 

Objective 1: Environmental Horizon Scanning (2011 - 2014)

George Prpich, Fiona Lickorish, Hayley Shaw

We undertake a regular programme of horizon scanning across 8 'key factors'. The purpose is to scan for shifts in themes such as climate change, energy and resources and less tangible factors such as consumer behaviour and geopolitics.We scan 500-1000 quality controlled sources monthly to deliver insight on possible futures to our partners.

 

Objective 2: Risk analysis for identified issues (2011 - 2014)

Fiona Lickorish, George Prpich, Aine Gormley, Julia Chatterton

Outputs from horizon scanning will be systematically examined for their relevance to risk.  Relevant insights will be subject to risk assessment techniques, in order to establish likelihood and impact of the risk, so that proportionate action can be taken, where required.

 

Objective 3: Foresight projects (2011 - 2014)

All staff

We will develop a sets of plausible future scenarios to analyse priority issues identified in (b) above, that map out the topic areas most relevant to Defra and its partner organisations.  Scenarios will provide a vital tool to test the resilience of different policies and strategies by providing alternative frameworks for analysis, and will also provide indicators which act as signals of movement towards the trajectory of a particular scenario/future.

 

Objective 4: Capacity building and knowledge exchange (2011 - 2014)

Hayley Shaw, Fiona Lickorish

We intend to improve the ability of partner organisations to integrate futures thinking into their everyday work.  Workshops will be used to share knowledge with partner organisations to enable independent long-term futures and risk thinking. Public and private sector organisations will benefit from improved understanding of long-term issues and risks to their sectors, increasing the ability to develop robust strategies and policies that are both future proof and innovative. 

 

Additional Project: Understanding the future of UK energy (2011 - 2012)

Fiona Lickorish, Simon Pollard, George Prpich, Andy Gill. 

This project will explore the risks and uncertainties associated with a set of existing energy system scenarios. The aim is to help policy makers understand how decisions today may impact society, the environment, technology and the economy tomorrow.