Evidence and Uncertainty

Our core capabilities

We critically examine evidence as part of every piece of research we do. Through this experience, and a dedicated programme of research under the previous Risk Centre, we have developed expert knowledge on weight of evidence and uncertainty assessment methodology.

CERF combines expertise in both quantitative and qualitative assessments of uncertainty and evidence, ensuring we can deliver insight that is scientifically robust and simple to communicate to decision makers. Our evidence and uncertainty research has been most useful to decision makers and analysts who are increasingly challenged to supply the scientific rationale for decision making, sometimes when there is little data available and high levels of uncertainty. Research at CERF helps to address this through a number of mechanisms.

We have:

  1. Developed new Government Guidelines on Environmental Risk Assessment and Management.
    The document draws together expertise from government, industry and academia, in particular to provide practical guidance for decision makers on dealing with evidence and uncertainty in risk assessment.
  1. Built substantial expertise in uncertainty assessment.
    Research in this theme has placed a large focus on the assessment of uncertainty in risk. We have developed typologies for uncertainty and applied these to uncertainties in GMO and engineered nanomaterial arenas, incorporated uncertainty assessment into strategic risk appraisal for Defra, and extensively reviewed weight of evidence assessments. In applied research, we regularly use tools such as Monte Carlo analysis in food and agricultural systems modelling and wider. We have developed standards for assessing uncertainty as part of PAS2050 life cycle assessment standards, and developed further guidance for Calgary City Water.
  1. Begun to apply risk methods to horizon scanning and futures research
    Horizon scanning and futures research is by nature, highly uncertain. When looking into the 5-50 year future, there are multiple factors which could affect a scenario. A core part of the new project will therefore be to understand how current uncertainty assessment tools might be applied to horizon scanning (alongside other risk methodologies).

 

Staff expertise

  • Dr Aine Gormley: risk and evidence theme leader, uncertainty, risk communication, guideline development.
  • Dr Adrian Williams: process modelling, systems modelling, Monte Carlo simulations, life cycle assessment
  • Dr David Parsons: process modelling, systems modelling, probabilistic models, Bayesian networks, Monte Carlo simulations
  • Julia Chatterton: Monte Carlo simulation, modelling, uncertainty (applications to food and agriculture and life cycle assessment).

 

Defining Projects

Governing the unknown: 2009- ongoing

Dan Skinner, Sophie Rocks, Aine Gormley

This project has explored the relationships between uncertainties and different aspects of the risk assessment/ evidence base. A relative typology model has also been produced depicting frequency of relationship between uncertainties and their respective management techniques.

 

Systemic risk analysis for exotic animal disease incursions: 2008- 2011

Joao Delgado, Phil Longhurst, Simon Pollard.

The study uses a systemic risk approach to investigate the pathways for two exotic animal disease incursions; Classical Swine Fever and Foot and Mouth Disease.  The study aims to reduce uncertainties induced by network complexity.

 

Analysing uncertainty for the impact of a new Animal Health body in England2008-2011

Aine Gormley, Simon Pollard.

A stochastic model was developed to estimate the number of animal disease outbreaks anticipated within the first 30 years of the proposed new body, taking into account the uncertainty,

 

New government Guidelines on Environmental Risk Assessment and Management: 2008-2011

Aine Gormley, Simon Pollard, Sophie Rocks

The guidelines are to offer generic advice to environmental professionals across government. The guidance collates the latest scientific knowledge on problem formulation, risk assessment, risk management, uncertainty and communication. Download the guidelines here. 

 

PAS 2050 Guidelines

Julia Chatterton, Adrian Williams.

We have) developed guidance for quantifying uncertainty in the application of PAS 2050, the specification for carbon foot printing for food and agriculture, to allow objective comparison of products.