Dr Ken McNaught

Lecturer and Director of Research
Location: MH169A
E: k.r.mcnaught@cranfield.ac.uk
T: +44 (0) 1793 785288
Informatics and Systems Engineering

Research interests include :

Probabilistic decision support methods (particularly Bayesian networks and influence diagram decision networks)
Statistical aspects of simulation modelling
System dynamics and combat modelling
Currently supervises three PhD students and a post-doctoral researcher
Currently involved in the EPSRC/BAE Systems S4T project (Work Package 4, concerned with Predictive Maintenance)
Recent applications have included fault diagnosis, prognostic modelling, valuing the effects of improvements in forecast information and intelligence analysis
Other application areas of interest include risk analysis, counter-terrorism and emergency preparedness
Teaching MSc courses in Military Operational Research and Defence Simulation & Modelling

Dstl, BAE Systems, EPSRC, RAO, DOSG, Motorola, BVT

Interest in Operational Research (OR) began with an MSc in OR at Strathclyde University in 1984/85, following a first degree in Physics & Astronomy at Glasgow University
After a spell working in Production Control for the car manufacturer Austin Rover, joined Cranfield University at Shrivenham as a research officer, later becoming a lecturer in OR
Completed a part-time PhD in combat modelling in 1998
Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society
Chairman of the Operational Research Society’s Western regional group.

Chan A and McNaught KR (2008). Using Bayesian networks to improve fault diagnosis during manufacturing tests of mobile telephone infrastructure, Journal of the Operational Research Society 59, 423-430, 2008.
McNaught KR, Ng B and Sastry VVSS (2005). Investigating the use of Bayesian networks to provide decision support to military intelligence analysts. In: Merkuryev Y, Zobel R and Kerckhoffs EJH (eds) Proc. 19th European Conference on Modelling & Simulation, Riga, Latvia. ISBN 1-84233-112-4
Alam FM, McNaught KR and Ringrose TJ (2004). A comparison of experimental designs in the development of a neural network simulation metamodel, Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory 12, 559-578.
McNaught KR (2002). Markovian models of three-on-one combat involving a hidden defender, Naval Research Logistics 49, 627-646.
McNaught KR (2002).An introduction to Bayesian belief networks. In: Ranyard J (ed), OR43 Keynote Papers, OR Society Conference, Bath, Operational Research Society, Birmingham, pp39-61. ISBN 0-903440-261.
McNaught KR (1999). The effects of splitting exponential stochastic Lanchester battles, Journal of the Operational Research Society 50, 244-254.