Decision Analysis & Risk Modelling Laboratory
About DARMLab
The aim of the Decision Analysis and Risk Modelling Lab (DARMLab) at Cranfield Defence and Security (located at the Defence Academy in Shrivenham) is to highlight and promote the development and use of modern methods for decision analysis, modelling and support as well as related risk modelling approaches, particularly in the defence and security sectors.
Our interests encompass probabilistic approaches such as Bayesian networks, influence diagram decision networks, decision trees, Markovian models, probabilistic risk analysis and adversarial risk modelling; multi-criteria approaches such as MAUT and AHP; consensual approaches such as decision conferencing and causal mapping; and the use of decision analytic methodologies within simulation, system dynamics and agent-based modelling. We are also interested in the expert elicitation process and the various cognitive biases which affect human judgment. Application areas of interest include fault diagnosis and prognostic modeling, intelligence analysis and course of action assessment, adversarial risk analysis, deception detection, information fusion and value of information assessment, counter-terrorism and emergency preparedness.
DARMLab is attached to the Operational Analysis, Modelling and Simulation Group, situated within Cranfield University's Department of Informatics and Systems Engineering.. It is located at the Defence Academy of the UK in Shrivenham, about 7 miles from Swindon on the Wiltshire/Oxfordshire border.
If you would like to discuss a potential research collaboration, sponsorship of a full-time or part-time research studentship (from 1 year for an MSc by research to 3 years for a PhD on a full-time basis) or a possible short course in this area, please contact Ken McNaught: K.R.McNaught@cranfield.ac.uk.
People
Peter Sutovsky
Roger de Souza Eremita (Research Student)
Chris Swinerd (P/T PhD student)
Vacancy for KTP Associate
Associates
Andy Chan
Research
Detecting Terrorist Activities: DARMLab is one of the partners in a collaborative EPSRC project, also involving Imperial College, LSE, Dundee, Leeds, Middlesex, Salford, Southampton and Surrey Universities. This project, which began in February 2010, is concerned with developing intelligent decision support and visualisation methods to help make sense of investigative evidence relating to potential terrorist activity.
KT-Box: This is an EPSRC-funded knowledge transfer programme led by Cambridge University, also involving Cranfield, Bath, Nottingham and Exeter Universities. DARMLab is involved in a KTP with Dytecna, a specialist defence engineering company, to enhance Dytecna’s capability in prognostic modelling. This work followed on from our involvement in the EPSRC/BAE Systems funded S4T project from 2007-2009
Quantitative Modelling of Military Tactical Decision Making. This is an EPSRC/Dstl–sponsored CASE Award. This work is being undertaken by R. de Souza Eremita, supervised by Ken McNaught, Trevor Ringrose and Jim Moffat (Dstl).
Investigating Hybrid Agent-Based System Dynamics Modelling. This work is being undertaken by Chris Swinerd and supervised by Ken McNaught, as a sponsored part-time Ph.D.
Valuing the Effects of Improved Environmental Information on Military Decision Making. This recent project was sponsored by the MOD’s former Research Acquisition Organisation. It was undertaken by Ken McNaught and Adam Zagorecki.
Investigating Information Completeness Within the Framework of Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams. This Ph.D. research was completed by Tracey Enderwick in 2008, supervised by Ken McNaught and sponsored by EPSRC.
Investigating the Applicability of Bayesian Networks to the Analysis of Military Intelligence. This Ph.D. research was completed by Sophie Carr in 2008, supervised by Ken McNaught.
Mathematical Representation of Military Command Decision Making. This work is being undertaken by Michael Richardson and supervised by Ken McNaught, as a sponsored part-time Ph.D.
Events and Activities
27 July, 2011
DARMLab seminar Anomaly Detection in Social Network Data with guest visitor Dr Maria Vigliotti from Imperial College.
28 June, 2011
2nd DARMLab Workshop on Modelling and Simulation Applied to Complex Decision-Making
24 May, 2011
Ken McNaught presented a seminar on ‘Bayesian networks for decision support’ at Strathclyde University’s Department of Management Science.
13 May, 2001
Akshay Soni has joined DARMLab as an intern from IIT Mumbai until late July.
18-19 April, 2011
MIMAR (Modelling in Industrial Maintenance and Reliability) Conference, Cambridge. Ken McNaught presented a paper ‘Knowledge elicitation for predictive maintenance modelling with Bayesian networks’, co-authored with Adam Zagorecki and Alexeis Garcia Perez.
Links
Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS
The European Association for Decision Making
LJDM (London Judgment and Decision Making Group)
DASIG (Decision Analysis Special Interest Group of the OR Society) http://www.theorsociety.org
Decision Systems Laboratory, University of Pittsburgh (Home of Genie/SMILE)
Cranfield Defence and Security
Quick navigation:
Operational Analysis, Modelling and Simulation Group
DESM Homepage
